7 percent....24,700 confirmed cases and 1800 deaths. Do the math.

How many cases not confirmed?

How many unreported cases? Obviously, no one knows. I suspect the rate is considerably lower.

exactly. 1,000s will have it and not ever get tested

Yep, most people likely just rode it out at home the way most folks do the flu, so it never got recorded.

The Italians are not testing squat anymore.... just trying to hang on.

Or, life as usual in Italy?

I learned in statistics classes many years ago that statistics can be manipulated. The truth of the matter is they do not know how many cases they actually have. Our media is doing its darnedest to make it look real bad.


Lets not even mention that Italians are "touch friendly" people , kissing on cheeks is an everyday scenario.

The world-wide media is the driving force behind the pandemonium.

SO, what ya gonna do different now?

Fuzzy math.
How many actually have it?
How old are they?
How many have underlying health issues?

The reason for the 1800 deaths is:
1) They have the oldest population in Europe, and it hits old people the hardest
2) They totally failed to contain or slow it down, and cases came fast and all together into a socialized health system that is flat broke and totally overwhelmed.

They are literally having to choose from those coming in who is the most likely to survive and putting them on ventilators. Others get pain management and end of life care.

This is the reason for "social distancing" - to spread the number of cases out over months rather than weeks so the hospitals can keep up.

So go fishing, go shooting.. avoid folks for a while. This isn't a hardship for folks like us.

I like your attitude.

The WHO puts the mortality rate at 2%, and they even say that its impossible to put a real number on it...we will never know the real mortality rate because symptoms are usually so mild we will never know how many people actually had it...

THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Yup. Most people do ride it out and are no worse for the wear. But when they spread it to Granny, so long grandma.

The skepticism here would be amusing if if weren’t so scary. This is serious. The Chinese apparently have slowed it down, but they essentially closed down a city of 10-12 million or so to do it. You really think that authoritarian government did that over the common cold?

On average, nearly 40,000 people die from influenza in the U.S. every year.




P

Its out of control here now. People dont start dying usually until 2-4 weeks after they get it. Hangon!

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.....

G23

Yep

Probably have more people over the age of 100 then anywhere else in the world.

Their healthcare system sucks now. That was not the case a few decades back.

Yeah, granny has a 15% chance of dying from it. Or if you're a glass half full kinda guy, she has an 85% chance of pulling through.

Must not be too bad if they are all so old........

It might have been months of business as usual at the meat market. Virus could have been released there months ago and no one was told until the Whistleblower doctor came forth. Healthcare system in China is pretty pathetic compared to ours.

Exactly... but do not give them the easy answers, let them work on all the readily available facts.

Holiday in Italy?...with airports, streets and places
like St Peter's and the Colesseum like ghost
towns, prices are dirt cheap, and one has little
chance of actually coming into contact with
the infected.

Spare me the hysteria.

https://www.newsweek.com/newt-gingr...ica-must-act-now-act-big-opinion-1492270

Italy has a unique vulnerability to coronavirus, because it has the second oldest-aged population in the world (only Japan has older citizens on average). This virus especially hits the elderly, and in Italy the average age of death is 81. The tragic experience of the Washington state nursing home simply reinforced the sense of vulnerability of older people.



So you are telling the world is coming to an end because a respiratory virus is more lethal to people over the age of 80? What next, you gonna tell me fire is hot?

If you want to do a public service, please tell us why infants and children seem NOT to be getting the virus or exhibiting symptoms? Other viral pandemics were hard on that age group too.

You want to look up what the mortality rate on people OVER 80 was that contract H1N1 a few years ago? To do that, you have to take the young out of the equation. Go ahead, do that math and get back to us.

Don't forget the ones that get "whacked" before the medical examiner gets a "suggestion" to report it as a case of virus..
CV is just a rug to sweep things under..

Arguing things that will all be settled soon. In three weeks we will know is this was one of the greatest media hoaxes of all time it is we are genuinely screwed.

Must be true I read it on the net

😃

Watch out don’t make too much sense to folks on here. Hell 11 years ago most didn’t say chit about h1n1, but right now they are running yelling sky is falling god help us..

Yup. Screw all the old people. That’s like 2/3rds of the membership on this forum. Tell your families you love them, gents.

I’m not hysterical. I’m not sticking my head in the sand either.

This isn’t the end of the world. Nobody said that. But hey, a few hundred thousand dead Americans because a bunch of people had the awe screw it mentality. Not to mention the affect this will have on our economy. Good thinking, gents. I can see a lot of you put a lot of thought and effort into this.

And usually not until 80 years after they were born.

It's confirmed, I read it twice on the internet. I am in the over-hyped crowd, am I right? Ask again in a few weeks.

I saw on facebook where someone had posted that they survived 10 end of the world events already.

Hatari that’s enough of that common sense crap... Pun very much intended.

You assume anything coming out of a communists country to be the truth?

Case fatality rate is a calculated by # dead/ # diagnosed with disease.

That is what is published for more hype.

Morbidity = number in the population that shows signs of sickness...........obviously many of these are ignored.

Infection rate= number of people who have had the disease agent replicate in their body to the point they Sero convert.....

We don't even have a serology test designed.

Mortality rate= number in the population that perishes from the infectious agent.

They don't have a clue.......ship of fools.

They all know it is a mild infectious agent that " culls " the infirm and greed made them press on ........being greedy.......

Until their grandma or their constituents grandma became at risk.

Putin got it right.....close the freakin borders.....close em now!

What a joke........please pretend YOU are infected and act appropriately.

Thanks.

Average Age of Italians Who Have Died From Coronavirus is 81.
Jim Hoft by Jim Hoft March 15, 2020



It appears Coronavirus is a Deadly Senior’s disease

The Italian government released numbers on the coronavirus last week.
There were 1,809 new cases of the deadly disease reported in Italy on Sunday.

The Italian government also recently released the percentage of deaths by age group.

90+ years old: 6% of deaths
80 – 89 years old: 42% of deaths
70 – 79 years old: 35% of deaths
60 – 69 years old: 16% of deaths

These numbers came from the World Health Organization YouTube page.

Yeah, several times higher than the flu, as in 10x deadlier.

Italy is old and dirty. I don't know what the average age there is, but it's probably close to 55, our average age is 39.

Also, Italy is a dirty 1st world country. It approaches Northern Africa.

Finally, I think there is a genetic component. They had a huge corona outbreak a decade or so ago that decimated their population.

Oh, I didn't read far enough into thread. Yes, they are ancient.

Yep. Doubt they do much hand washing either.

Given my experience being seconded to ENI on the Caspian Sea, live as usual...

I dunno, today the county had a dump truck and a front end loader patrolling the streets with,"Bring out your dead" blaring on the PA system.

Come on people. Mortality rate means nothing. More interesting is what are my chances of catching the damned bug AND dying from it. More likely to win the lottery and then some.

Exactly. The denominator is way off, everywhere.

My very good friend has been an ER doc for close to 20 years. After a long conversation with him last night, this is what he told me. Big takeaways.

This is a virus that ‘can’ kill the “weak” elderly and bad lungers, as he called them. Many 80 somethings coming out today like bad a$$es. If their bodies are strong, they can be just like everyone else.

Most people who get it, and will get over it, without even knowing they had it. They will convince themselves it was a small bug and not corona. This is why way more data is needed to determine mortality. He thinks less than 1% in the US for true mortality.

People will overwhelm the medical system because they are either ignorant, or selfish. People are already showing up at the ER wanting a test. No symptoms at all. Just because they want one or want one for sweet little Johnny. No, not making this up. Ask someone you know who works in an ER.

If you get sick, stay home. Some people won’t do this and will infect bad lung Grandma at her house, and it could definitely kill her. These people won’t believe their little sniffle could hurt sweet Grandma. Stay away from people and ONLY go to ER if you are really ill. He said only if you feel like you are going to die.

We have a leg up on this one due to the study of SARS and MERS. It gets real geeky here but there are definite similarities.

Our biggest enemy is ignorant selfish people and their behavior.

A lot of the macro reaction thus far isn’t solely for the well being of others.

Median age there is, iirc, about 43. Yep, here 38.

The flu is 40x deadlier for people over 65 than those between 18 and 45.

Do some math, the totals in Italy for those over 60 totals 99% of the deaths.

It's not just the old that are at extra risk.

Diabetics are another group. And we have a LOT of type 2 diabetics.

And a lot of type 1 diabetics as well.

And anybody with heart problems, respiratory problems.

Everybody knows folks who fall into those categories. All it takes is some common sense for a while. I got a few project guns and a lot of handloading to catch up on.

Just how many times are you going to use exactly the statement to prove you are clueless?

I'll take my training over yours.

You need to understand Italy to understand the Corona epidemic. The Italian government pays for 100% of retirement for seniors. They have retirement centers that house the seniors in concentration. The buildings are 12 -15 stories tall and there might be up to 50 building in a cluster. They provide food activities, free wine for the seniors daily. If a new virus got started in this environment I could see it taking a large toll. Italy is not backwards or a first world country at all.

Can you say "non-sequitar?"

Was that directed at????

I think it responds to the title of the thread?

It’s like a freaking Echo chamber on this thread. Thank you RAS for adding some reason with a couple others on this thread.

One point that I disagree with you though. You said your doc friend stay home if you are sick. The problem with that is the incubation period can last up to two weeks and you are contagious during that period. So, people could be sick, not feel any symptoms and pass it around. This is not going to be a good time for our elderly population and folks with health issues. But, it’s going to affect the rest of us too. It’s sad to see so many selfish and narrow minded voices on this thread.

I attended my first "End of the World " party in 1981? maybe 1982? WPB, Florida...

The next morning I was ready for it all to end.

But I had to get up and go to work...

Viral shedding has been recorded up to 37 days into the illness. That means people could be spreading it for 37 days. Kids are quite likely to spread it because they reproduce it quite well but often show very few symptoms.

Our local school plans to shut down for 2 days to clean after a student tests positive then reopen just in time for his classmates to return infectious.

I made the decision to hold my kids out. I guess I'm pro school choice. Let the people decide if they want to role the dice I guess. Doesn't make sense to me to ban group activities of 250 or more but leave large schools open.

Bb

Okkkaaayyyyy.......

How does the statement respond to the thread title?

A backwards country is not a "First World" country. Italy is very much a First World Country. I believe you are confusing the notion of Third World Country with Italy and defending it against the charge. Yet your statement can only be interpreted as putting Italy in neither a First World Category, nor a backward (Third World) category... which makes no sense.

I think that was simply a writing mistake. Easy to do. It always pays to review what you've just written before submitting it.

Just remember............what goes around, comes around, and you'll be old some day.

That's socialized medicine for you.

They aren't old because the healthcare is so great - it sucks. They are old on average because they didn't have many children. Their population has been shrinking.

The old average age is just another fruit of socialism. No need to have kids, the state will take care of you when you are old.

X2. Single payer system, just like Sanders wants...

IItaly might meet the financial definition of First World, but it doesn't meet the political definition. Italy is definitely a socialist country with a socialist retirement and health system. It would be closer fit with a second world communist system. The definition has varied Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Statistics are like bikinis.....they show ALOT but not everything nor what really matters...……..college professor.

So, isn't 2 percent of 350 million like 700,000? There's huge value in steps to curb transmission so everyone don't get it. Thinking it's all hype is foolish, no?

No. 7 million. But, that assumes 100% infection rate.

The Diamond Princess is still the best we have as far as an indication of mortality. 696 people infected, everyone tested, 7 dead so far,and 321 still active. So, 1% so far.

That is so true, and I never hear that mentioned. I spent 2 weeks travelling all over Italy. You are talking to some Italian guy you just met, he can't keep his hands off of you.
It is not [bleep], but they just pat you on the shoulder, kind of squeeze your arm etc. I was with a good looking blonde and she got touched left, right and center.

I have seen no other culture where the people are constantly touching and feeling one another. Bad deal when a deadly virus breaks out.

Exactly. Calculator fubar! Be it 1, 2, 7 percent fatal, that's serious chit, keeping the infection numbers down is all we have. Reasonable measures for short times seems prudent to me.

1800 in a little over a month amounts to 20,000 give or take a little in a year. Italy has a population of 60 million. Proportionally, that would likey amount to over 100 thousand deaths in the US.

BUT... They like us are still in the knee portion of the rise curve for the dumfuggs who do not understand math here. Following the curve of the numbers infected coud produce 4.2 MILLION DEAD PEOPLE if they o not get a handle on it.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Not every opinion has equal value.
Opinions of value are based on knowledge, experience, critical thinking/judgment.
Not everyone who disagrees with you is a dumbass.
Sometimes those agreeing with you are dumb or dumber.

This is not about politics. Take the time to read information not provided by talking heads.

Whatever else this may be: it is highly contagious, it spreads rapidly, a significant number of people develop a very serious form of pneumonia.

China and Italy outbreaks are not just the flu. Hospitals and health care got slammed.
I have several family members in high risk catagories. I don’t want them to die because some dumbass can’t put aside bias and think through the data.

They won't get it if they are smart & take care of themselves. Wanting everyone else to change their behavior when you could easily control your own is the very definition of a liberal.

P.I.I.G.S. if that means anything to anybody?

Thats not what I meant.

Everyone is calling Italy a schit hole.....I say it cant be so bad if they have such a good life expectancy.

Good post ^^^^^^^

Worldwide or in the US, Miles?

Good advice, good points. Also consider most older Italians live with their families, not in nursing homes or retirement communities.. Kids or younger adults bring it home and it's good-by Gramps.

What does "taking care of themselves" mean. Does it mean having a relative wear a mask, hood, hazmat and bringing them a ton of food from WW and staying at home and spraying down everything with 25% bleach or vinegar or h2o2 from the grocer and the hazmat relative before its brought into the house, or what?

..................What Italy DID NOT do at first is impose a travel ban coming into their country after the outbreak.......And now? Did not do it quick enough.

Tyrone, It’s not about politics. Your reply is the kind of stupidity I expect from dumbass teenage boys. Or Nigerian internet trolls.

And all of those 10-12million are still holding in place. May have slowed it down outside the city, but if it is that lethal they should be dying exponentially within. You essentially have a 10-12 million double blind study population in which to make a decision.

Our transplant centers are made up with immune compromised patients. They are not under quarantine, and those that are able, walk around within the center. They should be contacting it in numbers far above those outside.

Someone here insinuated those damn millennials are one of the bigger reasons we are going to have a problem....That was an interesting piece of rational argument... Maybe we should quarantine millennials....

"Old folks bogie and bogie they will....."

Why should I quarantine myself when I really DGAS if I get it?
If you are in a risk group, you should at least have 2 brain cells to rub together and figure out that you are going to have to self-quarantine.

You're the one that sounds like a self-centered Millennial - "Wha!!! The World's not fair!!! Everybody change for MEEEEEE!!!!!!"

They dying like crazy in Nigeria, Somalia? Should be by now....third world countries with little health care...If Italy is under siege, can you imagine....Try....

This place is full of old self-centered cranky old men....Mean too.....I work with a bunch of millennials. Mean????... They have nothing on some of the cranky old boomers and before that post on here....

Because you may not know that you have it while being contagious?

I just read a very interesting article and saw a good graph.

Italy is quadrupling every six days. So are we. Italy was largely dismissive as we have been.

I'm betting that a lot of people who think they have the flu actually have CV. They just stay in bed and get well in a week. Only a small pct are ever tested so any numbers are meaningless. The CDC estimates that this season the US has had between 35 mill and 49 mill flu cases. That's a huge variation in the estimate and it's a guess at best simply because so many cases aren't reported. Quite likely a good number of them are CV, not the normal flu, if there is any such thing as 'normal'.

If one doesn't know they are sick and contagious, then when do they quarantine themselves....

Cold is a virus, flu is a virus, this is a virus....Like the other two, can you get it more than once.....

This is a virus, it is out there and like it or not, it is not going away....It will most likely mutate many times and people are going to be getting and dying from it generations from now....

LOL! I bet you call people by their "preferred pronouns" too.

I haven't heard, but I'm betting cancer centers are REALLY wary, and concerned !
I've heard of nothing exceptional, like I expected to happen.

Antisocial means antibacterial and antiviral.

I've been a cool kid for a long while

As of today, in my burg..........

cancer, smoking, car wrecks and thugs, still killing more in each catagory, than the Gookflu.

Obits full of old people.
Like usual.
The under 25 folks, suicide, murder and vehicle accidents.
quite a few in the 40's and 50's from alcoholism (seen em as low as 35).

The heroin and fentanyl has slowed way down.
But 4 OD's on scanner last night/today.
Oddly, people doing this chit in their cars, slumped at lights or in parking lots.

Didn’t the mayor of Florence entourage people there to hug a Chinese to show they aren’t racist or afraid of Corona?

Even in the best of time who wants to hug a Chinaman?

And really, I don't care if you get it either. But I do care about all the other people you will infect during the two week contagious incubation period. Any moral person would care about that.

He said he doesn’t care if he gets it. He didn’t say he doesn’t care if he transmits it.

But don’t let that stop you from dancing the old folks bogie. 👏🏻

Now:

“The novel coronavirus is highly contagious, which means it spreads easily from person to person. According to the CDCTrusted Source, people who have the virus are most contagious when they’re showing symptoms of COVID-19.

Although it’s much less common, there’s a possibility that someone who is infected with the coronavirus can transmit the virus even if they’re not showing symptoms.”

Now, if he shows the symptoms or tests positive then he should avoid unnecessary contacts.

However, I still question how any who are non symptomatic would quarantine themselves.

Those who are high risk should quarantine themselves if they are worried.

They just announced a two week closure of my YMCA gym.

1: 2 weeks isn’t of any significance in slowing this down.

2: No one in a high risk category are forced to go there.

3: Gun clubs should close down to all the old farts that won’t sign a release until this is over. (It is with us now forever. )See how that goes over.

cruise ships often have a higher proportion of older folk, (some are like a bingo crowd or retirement village afloat)
who have various pre-existing medical conditions, on an array of immunosuppressant medications
and/or sufferers of obesity,smokers, drinkers, ...,..

so how much that 1% reflects general society is highly debatable.

The bottom line is, every man woman and child in this nation WILL get this virus in the next six to eight months. There is no way around that. It is that contagious.

Some who get it will be asymptomatic, but contagious. Some will be contagious for two weeks before becoming symptomatic. And for some, symptoms will lead to death.

None of the "social distancing" measures we are being asked to abide by will stop the progression of this disease. But these measure can slow it down and help our medical community handle it in a more efficacious manner.

But it is all for naught if 25% of the population is too stubborn, proud, or (should I say it, yes) stupid to abide by .Gov requests.


Okay, it might cost some of us a paycheck or two. Some of us might have to stay home and actually raise our own little juvenile virus incubators. The stock market might tank for another month or two. BFD, we are talking about human lives here.

I well remember what almost everyone here has had to say about HIV + and/or AIDS patients who go out in the community and recklessly spread their disease.

Our situation today is no different than the AIDS patient. By now each and every one of us potentially has been exposed to this virus. We are morally obligated to take measures to control its spread.

You say all will be exposed. No get, the virus.Then tell us how it will be contained.

Please without the flag waving.

IIRC, the other day you said 3-4 months, why has the time frame changed so much and so suddenly ?

do you still maintain at least 1% ( 3.3 million or more) of the population will die?

The post he was cuttin and pastin from at democrap underground got edited.

COVID-19 will be officially over on November 2, 2020.

True.
Average age on that cruise was 58.

This is what I'm concerned may occur.

Lots of places are taking measures unprecedented in America in hopes of slowing the infection rate. If those measures are effective, there is hope of slowing the doubling rate.

I see no evidence to support that any less than 1% of infected persons will die. In 1918 the rate of death is reported as in excess of 2% of the world population. Every report I have been able to find puts C-19 very comparable to the Spanish Flu of 1918 in terms of contagion, morbidity, and mortality.

It will not be "contained". We can only hope to slow the infection rate in order to relieve the pressure on our medical facilities. Yes, "flattening the curve".

Just like H1N1 of 1918, and H5N1 in 2006, there is no vaccine available for C-19. Nor will there be before this pandemic has cycled across the globe and burned itself out.

Once there are no more people left to infect, the disease will go away.

And you are still a lying sack of schitt, as well as ignorant and stupid.

I have no knowledge of this "Democrap Underground" you mention. But I did pass four years of math classes in High School, and read at an advanced level so that I am actually aware of what reports from Europe are saying.

The doubling rate in Italy is still four days. Perhaps we can slow that to six days in US if people cooperate with "social distancing" instructions.

And no, I am not panicking. But I am preparing. Just as our ancestors prepared when small pox, or typhus, or influenza was epidemic in their environment. Only a fool would fail to prepare at this time.

Are you a fool?

As I am 64 years old with COPD, and somewhat over weight, there is a fair chance I will not live to see my 65'th birthday in July. No need to panic, but something to be aware of and prepared for.

Because that is what a proper conservative does: prepare.

Rather than stick their head in a cloud where all they see is rainbows and unicorns and tell everyone they know "It'll be all right. The future will take care of itself. Yeah, that's the ticket, the government will save us all."

That is pretty much the opposite of a conservative! But it sure sounds like YOUR posting on this topic.

Lack of preparation: I can not think of a faster way to destroy a nation.

That's funny.

Human trial for a vaccine started today.

First Patient Dosed in Moderna's COVID-19 Vaccine Trial

nside the U.S., the first clinical trial for a vaccine to the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 began today. It is mRNA-1273, developed by Moderna with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID). The product was shipped to NIAID on February 25.

https://www.biospace.com/article/moderna-s-covid-19-vaccine-clinical-trial-starts-today/

I saw that one Epidemiologist said that 1.6 million (US deaths) is not out of the question. He based his opinion on statistics from China and Italy.

Won't happen.

Too many smart people working way to hard to make sure it doesn't.

The virus was around last November, maybe earlier.

Was in the US during the holiday season.

Most travel and human interaction for the entire year.

So there's only two possibilities:

1 - It's too late to flatten the curve, as your curve theory is already behind, by double the time to get exposed; or

2 - There's no need to flatten the curve, because the virus isn't badass enough ta support the hysteria.

It's apparent why you're determined to believe the exaggerations reported about the virus.

And a conservative would realize they had a condition unique to them, and take his/her own measures to protect him/herself.

Not plead ta the government to restrict everbody else, so that they could feel better about their own infirmities.

yup

I’ve seen no evidence supporting your claim, “[The virus] Was in the US during the holiday season.”

The death rate is lower for healthy young people and higher for old people with certain pre-existing conditions. The overall percentage is lower key words being "confirmed cases". It will be interesting to see numbers from country like Britain that isn't really doing anything to combat this virus.

That's not how mortality is calculated. It is # of confirmed and # of dead

Not true.

Go look at something like U.S flu statistics. Yes the numerator is actual deaths, but the denominator is an estimated number of cases, not just the confirmed cases.

China's population is four times that of USA. If that Epidemiologist is right, shouldn't China be closer to their anticipated 6.4 million dead than they appear to be? I realize that China is anything but honest, but I don't think they could get away with claiming several thousand dead if the number was actually a couple of million plus.
Also, as far as I can find, China's numbers of infected are down substantially.

It's out there, just reported carefully so as not to upset the timing that supports the "curve" hysteria.

The "curve" don't work if the virus was here months before it was supposed ta be.

Like the hockey stick used in AGW "proof".

Been reported the virus was in china in November of 19.

China didn't tell anyone, and of course there's travel between the two countries daily.

The reporting is that China was an ass for not tellin the US about the virus.

So that it could travel to the US.

After the hysteria dies down, it'll finally be admitted that the virus was in the US even earlier than November (just a prognostication).

All this figuring means little unless the conditions in Italy are exactly the same as here. Which they aren't. Except in parts of New York State. capisce?

Do you guys like deep dish or New York style?

AS, Do you really expect US pharmaceuticals can bring an effective vaccine to the street (or local pharmacy) in less than six months? Because, at the outside, this thing will be over within that time frame.

And if they do make vaccine available, someone will have to write legislation to hold the manufacturer harmless for any deaths blamed (accurately or inaccurately) on the vaccine. Legislation which would likely be overturned in the courts during the following years.

Granted, the labs are using tools never before available in this fight and are doing very impressive work. Work I am very grateful for. I sincerely hope a vaccine is available before I, or any on this board for that matter, contract this virus.

And that brings us to the question: How many will refuse the vaccine because it uses "genetic engineering" in development?

https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/corona...aly-will-be-left-to-die-news.106338.html

Coronavirus Victims Over 80 In Italy Will Be Left To Die

Italians aged 80 or older with coronavirus will effectively be turned away by hospitals, should the pandemic in Italy reach a point that this becomes necessary. According to The Telegraph, a document prepared by a crisis management unit in Turin, the capital of the Piedmont region that has been deeply affected, outlines the protocol for determining which patients will be eligible for intensive care if hospital space and resources are at a shortage. The coronavirus continues to spread all over Italy, and the country is preparing for the worst possible scenarios. The document reads: "The growth of the current epidemic makes it likely that a point of imbalance between the clinical needs of patients with COVID-19 and the effective availability of intensive resources will be reached. Should it become impossible to provide all patients with intensive care services, it will be necessary to apply criteria for access to intensive treatment, which depends on the limited resources available."

"The criteria set out guidelines if the situation becomes of such an exceptional nature as to make the therapeutic choices on the individual case dependent on the availability of resources, forcing [hospitals] to focus on those cases in which the cost/benefit ratio is more favorable for clinical treatment," it continues. "The criteria for access to intensive therapy in cases of emergency must include age of less than 80 or a score on the Charlson comorbidity Index [which indicates how many other medical conditions the patient has] of less than 5."
"I never wanted to see such a moment," Luigi Icardi, a councilor for health in Piedmont, admitted. "[The document] will be binding and will establish in the event of saturation of the wards a precedence code for access to intensive care, based on certain parameters such as potential survival." More than 1,000 people in Italy have already died from coronavirus, with the death toll rising daily. Over 15,000 people are infected. "We want to arrive as late as possible at the point where we have to decide who lives and who dies," said Roberto Testi, president of the coranavirus technical-scientific committee for Piedmont. "The criteria relate only to access to intensive care - those who do not get access to intensive care will still receive all the treatment possible. In medicine we sometimes have to make difficult choices but it's important to have a system about how to make them."

I said 1.6 million U.S. COVID-19 deaths won't happen (during this infection season). A vaccine is just one of many mitigation strategies.

As for a vaccine, it's my belief that when the next Flu shot is released, it will include COVID-19, along with the normal annual flu stuff in it.

Perhaps Corona is over by that time, but, it will encourage more people to get their flu shot, not less, and that might be the bigger life safer out of all of this.

The median age of those in bad shape in Italy is 65. Half over and half under. My doc buddy has a buddy he went to med school with who lives in Italy who just put a healthy 20 year old on a respirator.

Milan, Italy has 700 people on ventilators. They would have more if they could. A lot of people who have survived will never fully recover or take many months to do so.

I have been saying this same thing all along. If it isn't correct, I would love someone to prove it HOW it wasn't here.


Clyde

IF it was in Wuhan , it was here as well within a matter of days not months.

As bad as it may be it is my contention that it is nowhere near as bad as the press has decided to make it.

The only number that is remotely accurate is the deaths. That's pretty firm. the number of infected is a wild ass guess. You can't do the math if you don't have the numbers.

Instead of blaming everyone else, you need to control your situation. Frankly, that is the ONLY situation you CAN control.

If I get COVID, I will self quarantine. Never said I wouldn't. But until then, I'm going to live as best I can, avoiding at-risk people where possible. But if at-risk people are irresponsible, there's nothing I can do about that. You all make your choices and accept the outcomes. Life is not fair.

If all the low-risk people who aren't in regular contact with at-risk people get COVID, then the population will build up what vaxxers call the much-vaunted "herd immunity" and we'll never have to worry about COVID-19 again. If people DON'T get it, then we will be at risk of outbreak for a much longer time.

It was here. If you go to the Johns Hopkins website, it will give you a good primer on all this disease vector stuff. Suffice it to say there is NO DOUBT this is a media fueled issue, intent on destroying the President...and the country.

But it is also a serious disease an order of magnitude deadlier than the flu. Why was it not detected sooner? well "patient zero" got it from raw bat meat at a chink open market in one of two smaller cities in China (yeah, those slopes are disgusting). Eventually it made it to Hunan and onto the US, probably via a healthy host who probably didn't know he had it. It is logical to assume that is the way it continued to spread (people thought it was something else0 but eventually, it made it to a high risk individual. We currently have NO IDEA how many people have it, but one thing is clear, entry points in the US is where the disease is more prevalent.

The ONLY Valid statistic we have is the number of deaths, so there is no way to establish a ratio of disease to death OR disease to cure because we have NO CLUE how many people really have it(we do know that an overwhelming number do survive0. Over the course of the next two to three weeks, we will know where we stand (closer to the Italian or Korean model, my guess we will be more or less in the middle and closer to Korea). So while this is not a prelude to "The Walking Dead", it is certainly not to be taken lightly, so the million dollar question is where do we draw the line between the number of dead or economic and social chaos. Thanks to the MEDIA (and the democrats of course), they've driven the narrative to where we are now, irrational fear and that is their goal. Why? because maybe this will defeat the President. I beg to differ.

the guy is clueless

Well, according to the evidence I have seen..............all the experts say..........I have not been shown any......



Jeemeny Christmas!

When the body count reaches a million worldwide then I will get concerned.

Amazing how many buy into the hysteria.....

More dangerous than the virus is everybody's panic like reaction, we are melting down our economy over a few thousand deaths..... really? wtf

And save me the bullshit about the predictions.... same people are trying to convince me of global warming. Remember the hockey stick computer model.... fools , dangerous fools with an agenda

You have never seen me blame anyone. I have only repeated easily observable data and made logical predictions based on that data.

It is in the best interests of this nation to slow the progression of this disease. The cost of inaction will far outweigh the costs of controlling and slowing the rate of infection.

Whether I live or die is of little consequence to any but my wife, children, and grandchildren. But if a million like me die in the next four months, the consequences will be dire to our Republic.

Remember 500 cases 8 days ago, 1000 cases four days ago, close to 5000 cases today, 10,000 in four days, 20,0000 in eight days.

This is the nature of exponential growth.

Again the evidence is easy to see if one is not in denial, unlike global warming bull schitt.

Every where this disease has become established, it has exhibited a doubling rate of about four days.

Simple math proves when it became an infection on US soil.
1000 cases on Mar 11 or so.
500 cases on Mar 7.
250 cases on Mar 3
125 cases on Feb 28
67 cases on Feb 24
33 cases on Feb 20
17 cases on Feb 16
8 cases on Feb 12
4 cases on Feb 8

And we know there were multiple instances of patient 0 on the separate coasts.

Does this not match the recorded history quite closely?

Two weeks ago people were saying it's just 100 cases, no big deal.
Four days ago people were saying it's just 1000 cases, no big deal.
Today you are saying it's less than 5000 cases, no big deal.

When does it become a big deal? 100,000 cases? 1,000,000 cases? 300,000,0000 cases?

My question is how does anyone know[for certain] that it wasn't here on Jan 1 or before?
Are 'positive' test rates due to the fact that testing has slowly been more available[as more are tested I would expect that # to rise].

Actually, I am following the EXACT same protocol as nursing home employees. (Except my behavior is even more conservative, because I'm avoiding the at-risk instead of working with them 8 + hours a day)

The phenomenon of 4 day doubling in diagnosed cases has been observed in China, Iran, Italy, Korea, and US.

Had C-19 been loose in the wild in America on Jan 1 we would have 2 to the 19 power ,(1/2 million) cases today

That is great. I am only encouraging everyone to do the same. And remember, everyone you meet on the street, or in the grocery store, or in your child's school is now an at risk individual. They could be walking around with it for two weeks and never know. You could have it and be spreading it wherever you go for two weeks and never know.

Protect yourself, protect those around you.

Experts estimate coronavirus entered Washington state sometime in mid January

Was anyone looking on Jan 1? It's hard to find something when you aren't looking.
At the current mortality rate[s] would it have triggered the radar?
The vast majority get 'common cold' symptoms.

I came down with 'something' on Dec 26, high fever for one day and then persistent 'dry cough'[wife had same]. Dr. said not flu. Others on this site have stated basically the same in other threads.

Wuhan is a massive manufacturing region with the requisite international travel in and out daily so we really don't know for certain that no one left there carrying this bug prior to the travel ban.
I just can't make the math work[not trying to be argumentative].

Ok. Now I understand. Dean Koontz knew in 1981 a bat in Wuhan was going to give this schiett to someone. In 2020. Right.

I bet he made a killing in the stock market.

Today Italy is reporting ~350 deaths. JUST TODAY. If things do not get any better, or any worse and they hold their own for a year, that's somewhere in the neighborhood of 125,000 dead Italians in a country of sixty million total.

Before you post anymore really stupid S H I T multiply that number by five and a half and then think for just a second or two before you show the 'fire how [bleep] dumb some of it's members are.

And before any like minded idiots start in with the seasonal relationship of viruses to illness you might consider that the seasonal relationship is because we herd all our children into disease factories in September and by October production ramps up. This virus is attacking a population with zero demonstrated immunity.

Straight line thinking probably doesn't work here.

Thinking in quadratics might be more applicable:

It has to be a lie. Italy has Universal Health Care, absolutely guaranteed to provide adequate doctors, medicine, hospitals, and life everlasting for everyone.

The latest liberal propaganda, intended to spread hysteria.

If a person had an immunity, they'd never get infected.

So it's obvious that the people that catch the bug don't have any immunity to it.

Viruses change their characteristics every year, which is why the flu vaccine changes every year.

People that was immune the year before, ain't anymore.

It's the same as always.

If a population had "zero" immunity, wouldnt everyone infected die?

ie;] Severe Combined Immunodeficiency (SCID)
whereby both arms of ones immune system (innate and adaptive) are basically gone.

differing symptoms people are showing actually indicate varied degree of immune response.

Simmer down boomers.
If this is the end of the world, you can finally let go of the guilt of raising millennials.

Otherwise, always remember, no one here gets out alive.

This a new virus to humanity, we have not figured out why some folks are asymptomatic and others are hit hard with viral pneumonia, or why others have just symptoms in-between. It may be as simple as a vitamin deficiency related to our immune system or something quite a bit more complex. I do know that this virus poses a serious threat to our healthcare system until we get it figured out, none of us has ever seen a pandemic like this in our lifetime.

FWIW, China has closed all of the 16 makeshift hospitals it built to deal with the morona virus.

They were all empty.

https://www.scmp.com/photos/3074488/wuhan-close-makeshift-hospitals-covid-19-patients

From Reuters article March 13:

China has taken great offense at comments by U.S. officials accusing it of being slow to react to the virus, which was first detected in Wuhan late last year, and of not being transparent enough.

Late last year. Nov-Dec 2019.... let that sink in, just a bit

I believe the [bleep] was already here lots of people have said similar it’s being hyped up and it’s political but the truth will come out eventually

That's dumber than the first one! This is a bell curve and will continue to rise at an exponential rate until limited. That limit will be running out of victims in all likelihood because we will not have a vaccine available until a year or so from now.

This is another 99.99% B U L L S H I T post. Most of us carry varying degrees of immunity to pathogens we have been exposed to.

Some viruses change frequently. Some do not.

People that were immune to an influenza strain at some point frequently do carry immunity in some degree to mutated versions of the same strain and thus suffer much milder illness. It's why getting a flu shot EVERY year does more than just protect against those strains in in vaccine.

This is not liberal hysteria nor propaganda. It is facts.

Immunity is not an either or condition. It is a continuum. A good example is vaccines. They may wholly prevent an illness while they are still current. But... as time passes immunity wanes and how effective they are wanes as well. This is true for individuals and moreso across a population.

edited to add: This is precisely why old people whose immune systems re known to be less robust get a larger dose of flu vaccine annually. Their immunity was simply not so well assured with a standard dose of the vaccine.

No everyone would not NECESSARILY die. That is a function of their current state of health, perhaps the dosage of the pathogen, the virulence of the pathogen, whether vccine cn be administered in time. My understanding is that the corona virus 19 is not mitigated by immune response. Children are infected when exposed. There is something different happening which limits the symptoms (which are often caused by the immune system) that the children suffer from the virus infection. They appear to be infected at similar rates as adults. They appear to be clearing the infection in a similar manner and time frame as the adults. They just do so without suffering much in the way of illness

Of the cases that have been concluded (dead or fully recovered), 56.02% are recovered and 43.98% are dead

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Then what did you mean by "This virus is attacking a population with zero demonstrated immunity"..?




Do you mean the collective immune system does not in anyway resist the bacterial or viral infection
due to C19?....So there is no innate immune response to bacteria (intracellular) pathogens, nor,
adaptive immune rersponse to viral (intercellular) pathogens?

You are foolish to think that the Dims and the Liberal Media aren't playing this for all they can. They want this to last as long as possible and cost as much as it can.

Well, it's good to learn that I don't know a single Dim or read any Liberal Media.

Then how can anybody have "zero" immunity?

Your latest bullshit is contradicting your earlier bullshit.

Hysterical propaganda with no end.

Yep, the health care workers are all dead.

That's because you are too fugging stupid to realize you are running your mouth without understanding anything about the subject. You have no immunity to this corona virus because you have never been exposed to it. We as a population have never been exposed to it. So you as an individual and we as a population have no immunity to this corona virus. Until your immune system sees a pathogen it can build no defense against it. Where the hell do you get the gall to accuse anyone of hysterical propaganda?

That is true for every germ people come across.

And that is what makes it hysterical bullshit

Which is what I pointed out earlier, before you began arguing with yourself.

.

What kind dumb does it take to think the opposition would not use every bit of this rodeo to their advantage that they can? My neighbor's idiot dog is smarter than that. They have zero need to lift a finger to make it worse or last longer when they have the idiot in chief calling it a hoax in front of the world. This [bleep] is killing people and he pulls a stunt like that???

We have no need of enemies with people like you running their mouth.

Provide support for that claim.

overwhelmingly the infected have survived C19 , thus how can you claim 'zero demonstrated immunity".?

Already did that, above.

If you've got an immunity to a germ, you can be exposed to it and your body will kill it before it can reproduce enough to cause problems.

You can't catch the same cold (or flu) twice, because your body has developed antibodies ready to kill the infection.

*Only* germs your body hasn't been exposed to before, can cause problems.

And that's the way it's been since there was humans.

Only an anti-American liberal would try and twist that fact to try and screw the country.

Here's some simple shat for a simple [bleep]:

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/catch-cold-twice-video

There is nearly always immune response to a forein pathogen but that response is so small it cannot prevent infection and disease that follows. You body always recognizes self and non-self and will try to generate antibodies to attach to the non-self. That takes time and viruses can and will invade cells to capture to reproductive machinery of the cells before the body has martialed it defenses. During the time the virus is inside cells it is not visible to antibodies if they have been produced and it is busily replicating inside the cells until it ruptures spilling out all the copies. Given an adequate amount of time and a large enough initial viral assault this can result in a huge viral load in the body, a viremia.

Bluntly, with a naive immune system you body can recognize an invader, but it has no competence to fight back. You are defenseless until your body builds the antibodies to attach to the invader and in that interval is when you get to experience disease and or death. Youth, old age, sickness, poor general health all can slow the response down and prolong/magnify the disease and thus limit your survival prospects.

That's about as simple as it can be explained quickly.

with C19 its not all about the immune system under-responding, there are cases or people having
over-active immune systems, also detrimental to patients.




the immune system has no mitigation effect on C19? ..how do you explain the many survivors?






LOL.. I dont need you to explain the immune system to me short or long winded,
simply to distract from the questions I posed.

better you just explain to readers your contradictory statements.

Okay, picture a sliding scale from zero to one hundred.

Zero is zero immunity. That is where the human population across the world this year with this virus. Every one of us when infected with this virus have zero resistance. The virus will infect our bodies, and our immune system will respond to kill the virus. Ths is immune response, which is entirely different from preexisting immunity as from a vaccination.

100 is preexisting immunity as in a recent vaccination, or one who has recovered from a viral infection such as small pox. In this case, the virus can never get a start in our body because the agents to fight it are already in our blood.

To say that our immune response is on a continuum is to say that not all individuals are at 0 or 100. Some individuals may exist at 30 or 50 or 70 on the scale. This means they do have some antibodies in their blood, but not necessarily enough to totally prevent an infection. The virus will propagate to some extent in their system until their immune system has time to respond. But they will be partially protected. The viral reproductive rate in their system will be slowed and their immune system will have an easier time of catching up than if they had no protection.

The world does not exist in black or white. But in various shades of grey with white on one end and black on the other.

Yes, in regard to this C-19 virus. The human population has no immunity, because we have never encountered this virus before.

Why some individuals' immune system can ramp up so quickly that they never get sick, while others degrade for weeks and eventually die is still a mystery.

Because we do not have an explanation for this difference certainly does not indicate the difference does not exist.

And that's true for every virus on this planet.

If a person hasn't encountered that particular virus before, they will have no resistance to it, until their body develops the proper antibodies.

Same bullshit, different bullshit artist.

More B U L L S H I T.

You can (and do) lose acquired immunity be it acquired from vaccination or from exposure to the live pathogens. Even can children understand why they need to have their vaccinations boostered. Many pathogens do not vary enough over short periods that they need to be reformulated often and some not at all. Some pathogens and some vaccinations produce a weaker immune response that does not last long and require larger exposure and more frequent boosters.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Stop embarrassing yourself.

Spot on again. 7,600 dead in a global population of 8.5 billion. We're doing trillion plus dollars in damage to the global economy.....JFC.

If you are exposed to a virus that mutates it may be like an influenza and mutate a small amount and you may be able to mount a weaker response.

Get it right .

There's really nothing more to be said.

You're wrong and I'm right.

When this morona crap blows over, and nothin more than a normal flu season has occurred, I'm sure you'll take the time outta your busy schedule to apologize to the fire for makin such an ass outta yourself.

7600 in the first three months mind you and that number is quite accurately tracking an exponential curve and exactly how long should we wait and listen to people who know nothing or next to it before we take action?

How long and then, how many of the deaths are you willing to stand up and say I had a hand in this because is gave bad information?

I have book marked this because you will be asked.

No it is not true of every germ we come across.

Many antibodies are transferred to the infant through its mother's milk. Many germs are encountered in our youth in quantities small enough that our bodies develop immunity without ever getting sick.

An interesting question, to which I do not know the answer: Can antibodies pass across the placenta to inoculate the fetus before birth? I suspect they might, as some babies are born with viral infections passed to them from the mother. And some mothers are afflicted with Rh factor reactions caused by the fetus. So sometimes, at least, there is actual blood transfer between fetus and mother.

For instance, I have never heard of a dairyman or beef rancher succumbing to E Coli. We are exposed to bovine fecal matter in massive quantities from the time we can toddle, and acquire immunity to E Coli at an early age without ever becoming infected.

The survivors of this C-19 infection will have immunity in the future. But not until they survive it.

one thing about flattening the curve but still making the assumption that many - a high % - will actually catch it is developing herd immunity to decrease the probability of a second wave next winter.

but at the moment, no one really knows how long immunity lasts

there are still two big unknowns that substantially affect how the pandemic will progress. First, we don’t know how long immunity against the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, lasts. When people are infected with OC43 and HKU1—two other coronaviruses that regularly circulate among humans and cause common colds—they stay immune for less than a year. By contrast, immunity against the first SARS virus (from 2003) holds for much longer. No one knows whether SARS-CoV-2 will hew to either of these extremes, and according to one recent study, its behavior could mean anything from annual outbreaks to a decades-long quiet spell.

they are also trying to get a handle on whether this will die down in warm humid weather, but based on information from China, its being reported that measures will still have to be taken to contain it in the warmer months.At the same time the Washington Post ran a story sourcing experts who believe the warmer weather will result in a decline.

Italy is the pink curve.

The only relevant parts a that crap post.

Italy has a higher percentage of smokers that the U.S. and since COVID19 is a respiratory virus it might have more serous consequences for smokers.

The is so little that is really known, that you have to take it all with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Plus, I think that most people are missing perspective on the number of potential/possible deaths from COVID19.

About 35,000 people die from motor vehicle accidents in the U.S. annually, a little more than 1% of the population.

About 157,000 people die from lung cancer is the U.S. annually, a little less than 5% of the population.

In a good flu year, about 12,000 people die, while in a bad flu year 60,000 ore more people could die.

We don't go into a full apocalypse melt down when a large number of people die from the above three examples, so I don't understand why this unknown disease is creating such havoc.

You should start thinkin bout the next handle you're gonna log in under.

exactly, the experts don't know, so why post on here as if you do?

time will answer the question, we'll know in about 8 days

100 deaths in a 350,000.000 population. Maybe it will make it to a rounding error. 0.000000285

The unknown is scary.

You're the one tryin ta sell the hysteria.

Postin guesses ta try and scare people is an @sshole move.

If we're all not dead in 8 days, are you gonna post on this thread that you was wrong?

the potential to overwhelm the systems, healthcare and economy, which the listed examples mentioned above have little effect on, is why this is getting the attention.

From that video everyone should be able to understand why the government is trying to do what it is. We may or may not agree with the plan.................but at least everyone should now understand why they want everyone to stay in.

by stating experts have mixed opinions on immunity and it dying down in warm weather I'm selling hysteria?

I guess I could come on here and rant , is that working well for you so far on here?

what would you like me to admit I was wrong to in saying we'll know the answers to this in about 8 days?

Only you can answer that question.

What was the point of you postin what you admit was a bunch of guesses about what might happen?

no, I'm pretty certain you answered it. in your rant, you stated I was selling hysteria

you seem to be answering alot of questions on here by trying to be the loudest person in the room.


at the moment I am all ears. Give me your expert opinion on the shelf life immunity on this virus and the month or temperature it will die down

That was very good.

Ain't my job ta pull your head outta your ass.

Answer my question, and I'll answer yours.

What was the point of you postin what you admit was a bunch of guesses about what might happen?

Lots of things with potential don't end up amounting to $hit.

Too many people are expecting a worse case scenario in a situation where there is far too little information with which to make any sort of informed decisions or choices.

I told you already - that experts can't agree on immunity - that was what you've been ranting about for the last 3 pages here wasn't it?

maybe, but then you have to believe that Governors of several states and our President are just winging it right now because their actions are specifically designed to prevent the systems from being overwhelmed.

and if you want to say those people are basing their actions on far too little information, while at the same time questioning why we've never done this for the flu or car crashes or suicides or whatever, well, so be it, I won't argue it.

Plan for the worst.........hope for the best.

So you took the time to post that nobody knows.

How was that going to advance the discussion?

Unless, you were posting to justify the hysteria, under the theory that since "nobody knows", we have to shut down the US economy?

yes I took the time to post that experts do not have a solid consensus on immunity and how long it will last.

now given that statement.....

give me your expert opinion on how long the immunity shelf life is for this virus and what month it will wain

you didn't have a problem giving your opinion for 1/3 of this thread, so it shouldn't be a problem now.

then you can go back and tell me how I tied any of my statements to what we should or shouldn't do.

You can only reason with reasonable person.....

My opinion has always been that his entire morona crap is bullshit, case you haven't figured it out yet.

And this year's flu season, is gonna be like lotsa other years' flu season.

Hysterical liberals, like you, have tried to destroy the US economy by creating fear about "what might happen", as opined by "experts" that "don't know".

And what you shouldn't do, is post any more bullshit.

hysterical liberals

the ultimate fire insult

hey you know what?

we'll know in about 8 days

I'll be around. You can gloat about being right then

Noted.

If I'm wrong, I'll be on here admittin it.

But I don't think your fellow liberals that's posted here, will accede to your timeline.

They'll try and drag this out til November 2.

Italys deaths within days will exceed the number reported by China. Note in the article, Italian hospitals are taking very very patients over 70. Triage is in play.

From the WSJ
'Every Day You Lose, the Contagion Gets Worse.' Lessons from Italy's Hospital Meltdown.
Marcus Walker, Mark Maremont

BERGAMO—Ambulances here have stopped using sirens. The frequent blaring only adds to local fears. Besides, there are few other vehicles on the road in Italy’s national lockdown.

Most are headed to the Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital, a large, modern hospital in a prosperous Italian city that has been overwhelmed by the coronavirus disease. There aren’t enough ventilators to intubate all patients with Covid-19 who have severe breathing trouble. The intensive-care unit is taking almost no patients older than 70, doctors said.

A normally disused section of the hospital is filled with the critically ill and the hissing sound of oxygen. Patients lie quietly, with worried or exhausted faces, visible to others in the series of half-open rooms. Each focuses on the struggle to breathe. There are patients with airtight oxygen helmets over their heads, like transparent buckets taped at the neck.

“Some of them would have needed intubation in intensive care,” anesthesiologist Pietro Brambillasca said. The rest ought to be better isolated, he said, where they can’t contaminate anyone.


That is no longer possible. The number of ill has outstripped the hospital’s capacity to provide the best care for all.

The coronavirus is devastating Bergamo and pushing a wealthy region with high-tech health care toward a humanitarian disaster, a warning for the U.S. and other developed countries. The city’s experience shows how even advanced economies and state-of-the-art hospitals must change social behaviors and prepare defenses ahead of a pandemic that is upending the rules.


Some U.S. doctors are trying to understand how the coronavirus defeated all efforts so far to contain it in Lombardy, the Italian region that includes Bergamo and Milan. They seek lessons but don’t have much time, as the pandemic, now coming under control in China, takes off throughout the West.


Maurizio Cereda, an intensive-care doctor and anesthesiologist in Philadelphia, recently circulated a list of lessons from Italy to colleagues. Dr. Cereda, now at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, trained in Milan and has been in close touch with Italian colleagues in Bergamo and elsewhere.

Many of the lessons relate to public health, to avoid overwhelming hospitals. “Mild-to-moderate cases should be managed at home, not in the hospital, and with massive deployment of outreach services and telemedicine,” he wrote. Some therapies could be delivered at home, he said, via mobile clinics.

Another lesson: Italian emergency-medical technicians have experienced a high rate of infection, Dr. Cereda said, spreading the disease as they travel around the community.

He also warned that smaller hospitals “are unprepared to face the inflow of patients” and are likely to collapse. He suggested admitting the sickest patients to bigger facilities and using dedicated ambulances for suspected coronavirus patients to avoid infecting the entire fleet.

Italy’s death toll from the coronavirus hit 2,158 on Monday, up 349 since Sunday. The country is on course to overtake China’s 3,099 deaths within days. Its large elderly population is especially vulnerable to Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

About two-thirds of Italy’s dead, 1,420 people, are in Lombardy, the ground zero of Europe’s epidemic. It is where the virus is all the more deadly because hospitals in the worst-hit towns have reached their limits. Bergamo, in particular, has become Italy’s symbol of an epidemic spinning out of control.

Studying the dire turn of events in Italy has helped U.S. doctors better prepare, said Brendan Carr, Chair of Emergency Medicine for The Mount Sinai Health System, a New York City hospital network.

Dr. Carr said he and other U.S. physicians have had informal calls with Italian doctors in recent weeks. “It’s terrible to hear them talk, but it benefits us to learn from it,” he said. One lesson, he said, is to build capacity for the expected influx of Covid-19 patients before it’s needed. Mount Sinai is clearing out space and creating new ICU beds, he said.

Bergamo shows what happens when things go wrong.

In normal times, the ambulance service at the Papa Giovanni hospital runs like a Swiss clock. Calls to 112, Europe’s equivalent of 911, are answered within 15 to 20 seconds. Ambulances from the hospital’s fleet of more than 200 are dispatched within 60 to 90 seconds. Two helicopters stand by at all times. Patients usually reach an operating room within 30 minutes, said Angelo Giupponi, who runs the emergency response operation: “We are fast, in peacetime.”

Now, people wait an hour on the phone to report heart attacks, Dr. Giupponi said, because all the lines are busy. Each day, his team fields 2,500 calls and brings 1,500 people to the hospital. “That’s not counting those the first responders visit but tell to stay home and call again if their condition worsens,” he said.

Ambulance staff weren’t trained for such a contagious virus. Many have become infected and their ambulances contaminated. A dispatcher died of the disease Saturday. Diego Bianco was in his mid-40s and had no prior illnesses.

“He never met patients. He only answered the phone. That shows you the contamination is everywhere,” a colleague said. Mr. Bianco’s co-workers sat Sunday at the operations center with masks on their faces and fear in their eyes.

The Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital, a 950-bed complex that opened in 2012, is among the most advanced in Italy. It treats everything from trauma and heart surgery to organ transplants for children.


Click here for complete coronavirus coverage from Microsoft News
More than 400 of the beds are now occupied by confirmed or suspected coronavirus patients. The intensive-care unit has swelled to around 100 patients, most of whom have Covid-19. New cases keep arriving. Three of the hospital’s four top managers are home sick with the virus.

“Until three weeks ago, we did everything for every patient. Now we have to choose which patients to put in intensive care. This is catastrophic,” said anesthesiologist and intensive-care specialist Mirco Nacoti.

Dr. Nacoti worked for Doctors Without Borders in Haiti, Chad, Kurdistan and Ivory Coast, and he is one of the few medics in Bergamo who has seen epidemics. Yet, those were diseases with vaccines, such as measles and rubella.

He estimated that around 60% or more of the population of Bergamo has the coronavirus. “There is an enormous number of asymptomatic people, as well as unknown dead who die in their home and are not tested, not counted,” he said. “The ICU is the tip of an iceberg.”

Hospitals in the U.S. and across Europe must organize in advance, Dr. Nacoti said, and governments need community lockdowns early rather than late.

“An epidemic doesn’t let you proceed by trial and error,” he said. “Every day you lose, the contagion gets worse.”

Bergamo, a city of about 120,000 northeast of Milan, sits at the heart of one of Italy’s wealthiest regions. Companies nearby make San Pellegrino mineral water, luxury yachts, and brakes for Ferrari cars. The city’s hilltop core, a medieval citadel, is normally filled with tourists.

When Bergamo discovered a clutch of coronavirus cases in its outlying towns around Feb. 22, Dr. Giupponi of the Papa Giovanni hospital emailed Lombardy’s regional health authorities. He urged them to empty out some hospitals and use them exclusively for coronavirus cases.

Regional managers at the time were dealing with an outbreak south of Milan. “We haven’t slept for three days and we do not want to read your bulls—t,” Dr. Giupponi recalled their reply.

Since then, Italy’s lockdown has turned Bergamo into a ghost town.

Death notices in the local newspaper, the Bergamo Echo, normally take up just over a page. On Monday, they filled nine pages. “And that’s just the ones that are in the paper,” Dr. Nacoti said.

Doctors taking a break at the Papa Giovanni swap stories of woe, including the call from an elderly-care home reporting suspected virus sufferers who were over 80 years old. The hospital said the elderly residents had to stay put.

“None of us have ever seen such a thing,” trauma surgeon Michele Pisano said. “We’re trained for emergencies, but for earthquakes, not epidemics.” Dr. Pisano has little to do these days: Italy’s lockdown means there are virtually no car crashes, bicycle accidents or broken bones from skiing. He helps out in the coronavirus wards however he can.

In small towns around the province of Bergamo, the pressure on local hospitals is even greater.

Dr. Nacoti helps at a hospital in San Giovanni Bianco, located in the foothills of the Alps. On Sunday evening, the facility had around 70 coronavirus patients. The hospital, which specializes in outpatient surgery, normally has 20 beds.

Recently arrived patients lay on gurneys, filling the emergency room and a corridor while they wait for beds to become free.

Upstairs, more than 50 patients were administered oxygen through helmets or masks. Some were in critical condition, but the hospital has no intensive-care unit and no ventilators.

“We thought seven beds downstairs and seven upstairs would be enough,” senior nurse Fiorella Busi said.

The hospital had planned to send severe cases to Bergamo. “But we got indications that, if patients are over 65 or 70, they won’t get intubated,” said Davide Grataroli, one of the hospital doctors. “So, we’ve chosen to manage them here as best we can.”

That has been the situation for nearly three weeks. The patients know that the lack of intensive-care facilities dooms those not strong enough to survive the disease with limited help. “They accept it with resignation and no complaints,” said Ms. Busi, the nurse.

“The most devastating part is that they are dying alone,” she said. “Families see the patient for the last time at the emergency room. The next time is at the mortuary.”

Such a lonely death is hard to take, the nurse said: “It’s not our culture. We’re very connected here.”

That's odd, how is it China has a handle on it so soon?

Copy and pasted from the Gateway Pundit, kinda blows the doom& gloom predictions up........


It’s been eight weeks since the Diamond Princess cruise ship was grounded for a suspected coronavirus outbreak.

On January 20th, an 80-year-old Hong Kong passenger disembarked the ship and later visited a Hong Kong hospital where he was diagnosed with the coronavirus. On its next voyage the ship was in Japanese waters when 10 passengers tested positive for coronavirus.

The ship was then quarantined and 705 passengers tested positive for coronavirus.

There were 3,711 passengers and crew on the cruise ship.

Six weeks later there are 7 dead.

That means: 1% of those infected died from the virus.

The virus killed 7 of 3,711 passengers and crew about the Diamond Princess.

China has not been forthright about deaths or degree of infection. That is why they are expelling foreign journalists. Chinese citizens are angry with their government over the lies. There have been posts on the fire regarding this.

How about the Diamond princess cruise ship? China isn't controlling the narrative about that.

To better put this in perspective. Quoting from Scientific News

"As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent."

This my observations. Of the passengers showing symptoms, dead rate was 1.9%. Many of the passengers who tested positive showed no symptoms. The most vulnerable passengers, 70 an older had a death rate of 7.3%. If all Americans 70 and older were infected by the virus with a fatality rate of 7.3%, the US would have over 2,000,000 deaths.

You’re fücking delusional.

No wonder the millennials are calling it the "boomer remover" boomers best shelter in place and practice hermittude

I’ve kind of kept my mouth shut on this but some people are going to look back on these threads with a lot of regret. Some won’t get that chance. I switched careers a couple years ago in large part because it would be safer for me and better for my family, and it was up until February 28th. I’m on day 17 of quarantine and hope to be done soon. My last 48hr shift prior to that won’t ever be forgotten. I just got off the phone with my best friend who’s seen some serious stuff in the last 14 years and he was shaken by what they are dealing with.

I called my wife the first night and told her things were going to get weird in America and they are. At this point all that’s left to find out is if it stays weird or gets catastrophic. If you think the choices that drs are having to make in Italy are different then are already being made here you might want to think again. King County, Washington, despite being a messed up place politically, has what many, myself included would call exceptional medical system. As in leads the world in cardiac arrest survival, CVA protocols, prehospital standards of care etc. Its getting hammered. Less capable systems are in deep trouble if they don’t stay very lucky.

I would doubt you could find a person who knows me in the real world that would say I’m an alarmist or easily spooked. I’ve seen this crap up close when it’s metastasized inside a facility of those most susceptible to it, horrific. All these restrictive measures grate at me on a personal level, but simply put they have a realistic chance of keeping our medical system from collapsing. Flattening the curve is vital to keeping the healthcare system functioning and keeping as many people alive as possible. Take this crap seriously, what’s coming isn’t cold/flu season as far as potential downside if it gets out of control.

Personally I feel there is zero chance that China’s statistics on Covid19 are even remotely accurate. I’ve spent enough time in Asia to know something this virulent that attacks the respiratory system would have far greater impact. 10 years from now I bet there will be a Amazon/Netflix miniseries along the lines of Chernobyl regarding what the communist regime is doing to suppress the truth.

And combine that with oranges man bad posts and we have a serious issue lmao

Last night Daughter came off a 20 hour overnight shift in the ER at the local Hospital which is the biggest in a county of 750k.

Tonight she says its busier, mostly people who think they have the covid because of a sever cold or flu or some other respiratory illnesses floating around out there.

They have positives onsite in isolation.

They are doing triage on walkins in an outside isolation tent before taking people inside.

Hospital is on lock down except for staff and patients. Unless your loved one is dying your told to go home you ain't getting in.

My wife works in an ER in the mountains of VA. They had an unexplained suspicious death about 10 days ago. Older woman came in after falling. Vital checks and follow on testing showed she had unexplained pneumonia and a high temp. She was dead within 24 hours. No testing at that time or still.

If the want to test somebody now they would have to refer to CDC. They are getting a lot of malingers...non-symptomatic folks complaining of flu like symptoms that test negative for flu. Referred to health department for quarantine. Get two weeks off work and that's what they're after.

What concerns me is that the hospital is doing nothing to protect the people that work there so when the virus hits the area I am very concerned about my wife getting it.

What I'm saying is that over 200,000 people die every year in the U.S. from lung cancer, automobile accident, and influenza and not only don't we panic, we hardly notice/acknowledge the deaths unless they directly impact us, a friend or family member.

If another 200,000 people died from COVID19 before we have a handle on it, it is such a large number that it can't help but to have an impact on the country as a whole, but how much of the impact will be real, lost productivity, and how much will be related to unreasonable fear?

I think that all of the politicians are winging it and because it is an election year they fear that making any move that could give any impression that they are doing less than is necessary will open them up to criticism from the opposition. Politicians don't care about the average citizen, they care about maintaining the power that they have, adding to it any chance they get, and messaging their public image.

shhhhhh. only hysteria allowed on here.

Oh, I see what you did there Lennie - assumed that all Americans over 70 got the virus. That 2,000,000 looked really big.

Here's some different equations, also using the Diamond Princess. Especially for those saying: "Look at the Diamond Princess - it has a low overall mortality rate"

SARS-cov-2 was able to spread without any actions taken to stop that spread on the Diamond Princess, for about 15 days - January 20 when patient 0 embarked, until February 4th when a lockdown was put into effect. The total number of infected, both before and after quarantine eventually totalled 705 (per Gateway Pundit, other sources differ).

Eventually, the morbidity rate came out to 18.9% using the Gateway Pundit numbers (705 of 3711) and mortality rate came out to .18%. (7 of 3711)

Multiply those by the 89,000 times greater population of the USA as a whole (330 million) and you get over 62 million infected (with and without symptoms) and 622,000 deaths.

Now, it's believed that USA's patient zero arrived here on January 15th, and how much time has elapsed before mass action was taken to limit the spread of the disease? About 55 days when schools started closing, mass sporting events were cancelled etc... What I assume is presently saving the USA as a whole, is the relative social distance that the USA has in comparison to China, Korea, Italy, the Diamond Princess...

I recommend you fasten your seatbelts, the ride's going to get bumpy.

It is growing. According to Johns Hopkins University studied, Italy presently has 31,500 cases with 2,500 deaths. The New York Times reported yesterday that due to the "quarantine", Italians can not meet, funerals are on hold and, the morgues are filling up.

Epidemiologists (using statistics from other nations) predict the US number of cases could hit 240 million and result in 1.6 million deaths. Of course, many of the deaths will be elderly or have underlying weaknesses, so their inevitable deaths just might be hastened.

The US has just under 3,000 hospitals (civilian and military combined) with 945,000 beds (American Hospital Association). By practicing social distancing, frequent hand washing, etc., the numbers of victims (hopefully) can be spread over a year or so and thus hospital,beds will be available as needed.

That amounts to 18 deaths for every 10,000 people.

Not a small number by any means and actually about 1.5x the number of Americans killed during WW2.

I wonder how many of those 18 people would have died from some other cause?

Are you concerned that I rounded down to 622,000 deaths?

Or are you looking at the ~100X larger morbidity rate, and confusing it with mortality rate?

Yeah, your numbers and his, agree. so he should agree to agree,
I think,
lol

America will be in the same position very soon.




The coronavirus is at least as infectious than the seasonal flu, and many estimates put it higher. And people can infect others while showing little noticeable symptoms.

But the seasonal flu has a death rate of 0.1%, whereas coronavirus ranges from 1% in South Korea to over 7% in Italy.

But South Korea tests 70 times as many people per capita as the CDC does. And South Korea put a lot more effort into their quarantine measures. And South Korea has a much more robust public healthcare system. Meanwhile, last week the CDC only tested a grand total of 77 people. And Americans do not take the social isolation measures seriously. In France, you now have to print and fill out a form if you wish to leave your house. Meanwhile in America, the Governor of Oklahoma proudly posted (and later deletes) a Tweet showing that he's not scared of no durned virus: "Eating with my kids and all my fellow Oklahomans at the @CollectiveOKC . It’s packed tonight! #supportlocal #OklaProud"


I predict America's death rate is going to look more like Italy than South Korea or even China.

The seasonal flu kills an average 36,000 Americans per year. This means best case you're looking at 300,000+ deaths and worst case, Italy-like scenario, 2.5 million deaths, or more.

This is basic math.

The second graph is concerning. No visible agenda there. Never mind. See below.


But the first graph looks like an instance of "Lies, damnable lies, and statistics". The first known case in the USA was announced on January 21. The first cases in Italy, January 31, ten days later. So why start the number of cases based on the dates used on the first graph? Why not start the USA 10 days earlier than Italy, rather than 10 days later? I know they're just trying to get the nice pretty bars to align and all. But still, wouldn't be more honest to show number of cases over time since first confirmed case? Worldometer only goes back as far as February 15, but on that day, there were 15 known cases in the USA, only 3 in Italy. 4 weeks later there were 24,747 in Italy and only 3680 in the USA. "But the USA doesn't test!!!". Ok, so let's look at deaths. On February 15, zero deaths total in Italy. The 16th - same. The first known death to Covid-19 in Italy was February 21. The USA didn't have a death until February 29, even though the disease was known to be here much earlier than it was known in Italy. Four weeks later, 1809 deaths in Italy, only 68 in the USA. There were over 68 deaths in Italy five days after disease discovery.

I liken that first graph to comparing lemons to pomelos. Sure they're both yellow citrus, but they're not the same at all.

Oh crap - I just noticed that second graph is logarithmic!! And is 5 days old !! And shows that the infection rate in Italy is about 150% that of the USA. Agenda found...

Did you miss the fact Italy refused to close it's borders? Hell they even ran an add campaign promoting hugging a Chinese tourist, the add depicted an Italian pulling the mask off the Chinese tourist and hugging him , that was to make him look more human.
Trump shut down travel from China then Europe, yet liberals like you even criticize him for that.

heck I'd think since our population is a tad higher than Itally our numbers should have already surpassed their numbers, the fact that they are aligning number wise on same days seems like a really good thing to me.

If anyone thinks this “virus” hasn’t been here percolating since November of 19, well I have some ocean front property in Arizona for sale...

Been my contention all along.

The Media is working hard on the flatten the curve theory. The theory is their insurance policy if things don't get bad enough.

So for arguments sake lets use the figures you provide, you claim 2 million 70+ plus year old's could die. A few things about that....

1. Being 70+ is dangerous in itself, the mortality rate is much higher than younger generations.
2. Figures lie and liars figure
3. Maybe the folks in this category should self isolate
4. If you make it to 70+ and don't have enough sense to prepare and have a few provisions stashed away you are a fool.
5. So in order to potentially save 2 million elderly lives we should destroy our economy, destroy millions of small business, destroy peoples life savings, destroy jobs
6. Bad people have agendas, learn to spot them
7. The press is not a trusted source for any information
8. China lies
8. China hates Trump, he has had a devastating affect on the Chinese economy
9. The Democrats hate Trump and have stated they will collapse the economy to rid us of Trump
10. The swamp hates Trump
11. This is an election year
12. We had a meltdown in 2008 , another election year


So before you panic and play into their hand use some basic critical thinking skills

There has been a lot of bad illness this flu season, but they pretty much have patient 0 figured out.

I was on a call with a co worker in Germany who is planning a workshop in 5 weeks. He was asking me if I would attend.

Uh no , I will not be attending your workshop in Germany. The people from India plan on going ...for the moment. The guy from China wasn't on the call. I was interested in hearing his response.

I’m staying home all I can. I’m avoiding all crowds.

Rounding down by 474 is insignificant in the scope of things..

474/622474 = 0.000761478

I am obviously not confused about the mortality rate that you cited, 7 out of 3,711, the math is there for all to see.

Yes - discussed this with some medical professionals the other day.

he's FUBAR...should be banned for the public good

I am fubar also..... and I have decided to self ban myself from the public.....




for my own good... hahahahah

good

I know sse, another poster accused me of endangering people "boomers" oh wait I am a boomer, damn
Wish me luck.....

Bullets trump virus.

Those other causes are all still out there adding to the death toll.

Now you went and done it. You took off your tinfoil hat and the government and MSM are mind controlling you...




I said 622,000 would die if the mortality rate holds. You say 622,474 will die. You keep saying my math is wrong, but then give the same answer (rounding down by 474 is insignificant in the scope of things).

Now, the 62 million figure that was in my original post is not mortality, it is morbidity. Do you know the difference?

You're proving your dumbphugkery here. There's no guarantee it won't kill you too, Einstein. Guess you can't read.. or find the internet, except for the campfire bbs.

Haha. Good luck, boomer! (Me too). lol

What I'm doing is exactly the same as someone who works in a nursing home - living my life and avoiding people in risk groups.
I'm confident that vitamin C will help me if I get sick.

But really, there are no guarantees. We all might get hit by an asteroid.
If you aren't in a risk group, you are a pussy. I'm not going to live hunkered down, scared of everything. Nobody gets out of here alive.

We should be free. We shouldnt have to pay for a military. No one should have to serve. Every man for Itself. Why do we need to have civil civilization? We didnt have all these rules and crap a 100, 000 years ago.

Yep Dirt, we are up against the "boomer remover"
Stay thirsty my friend...... oh and say hi to Travis for me.

Where does that date come from?

You are a boomer?


Funny.....you sounded a little taller on radio.......

Interestingly S Korea was on the same trajectory as well, but they had a MASSIVE testing program, and that had a serious flatting effect. Identifying carriers is the very best prevention tool. We are going to give away $1000 checks to all the taxpayers but some hospitals have no tests at all. I think our priorities are screwed up.

Perhaps I misread your original post, if so, I sincerely apologize.. I thought that your mortality number was 6,220,000 when I started to compile the numbers for my reply.

I think that we can agree on the 622,474 mortality number if the cruise ship numbers, 7 deaths out of 3,711 passengers, are representative of the universe. 7/3711 = 0.1886%. Since it appears to be a random sample over 30, it should, statistically speaking, be representative.

** Mortality is the state of being subject to death. **

The morbidity rate is irrelevant to me, but if the cruise ship numbers represent the universe, 705 positive tests out of 3,711 passengers, represents a morbidity rate of 18.9976%. (705/3711)

** Morbidity is the condition of being diseased. **

The "experts" seem to think that the great majority of people who are infected with COVID19 will have minor, flu-like, symptoms, so a mortality rate of 0.1886% seems reasonable.

I reran the numbers again and came up with morbidity number of 62,691,997, 18.9976% of 330,000,000 and mortality number of 622,474, 0.1886% of 330,000,000.

So, if 62,691,997 people become infected with COVID19 and 622,474 of them died from it, those deaths would represent 0.9928% of those who have been infected.

A big number, 622,474, that is a small number, 0.9928%, as least from my perspective.

Haha Jim, technically I am a boomer, was born in 61, I feel I share more in common with the next gen. GenX ?
Oh and I am ten feet tall on the radio and internet...... wanna fight?

Yeah, I guess we should fight some.


Be quick about it though......I dont have much wind with this pneumonia deal.

I would love nothing more than to drive to the hi-line and dish out some whoop ass but I have been told not to leave home.... I am high risk "boomer"

And don't be mistakin this for cowardice or any thing like that......

That was the idea. Get rid of the old Trump voters.

The .18 % was with the best health care. That is why it is so important to flatten the curve so that care can be provided, otherwise it goes way up as we are seeing in Italy.

Younger folks are dying there now.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...spital-luca-lorini-bergamo-a9402531.html

Our rate of spread is much lower than theirs since our population is much higher.

Sounds good right? But flattening the curve also prolongs it, and prolongs the economic crisis. Can't let a good crisis go to waste

It's called "Generation Jones".

OK, let's run some more numbers.

If "The Experts" are right, 80% of people who become infected will have mild, flu-like, symptoms. If we agree on a morbidity number of 62,691,997, that means that 12,538,399 will have more than "mild, flu-like, symptoms". But what percentage of the 12,538,399 will die?

10% - 1,253,840
09% - 1.128,456
08% - 1,003,072
07% - 877,688
06% - 752,304
05% - 626,920
04% - 501,536
03% - 376,152
02% - 250,768
01% - 125,384

So many number without any standard, accepted, base numbers to start from. Ask 100 people for a reasonable number and you're likely to get close to 100 different answers.

Generation Jones? interesting and what kinda selfish deeds are they known for?

Really, what has my 'doesn't really fit any generation' generation done to deserve this Generation Jones designation?
63 model here.

I should have said December, I stand corrected.

Fox News

Woman’s Health

I used my Google fu to look up generation Jones... I had never heard of it before..

They summed it up with this:

Key characteristics assigned to members are pessimism, distrust of government, and general cynicism


Sounds about right..... now I know why I behave the way I do.....

We may not all agree with the game plan the government is running..........but at least we know the plan..................it may not work out, but we can see a plan. It's like a plan in war, business, sports...........may not work but it is a plan. Personally mine would look more like this.


ooxxoo
x
x x Triple option (If your quarterback has a 4.3 or better)

The part that worries me is the game is rigged and Trump has been forced to implement this plan and I don't like it one bit!

Trump hasn't backed down from any battle I have ever seen him engage in. If he relented unwillingly, he certainly did it quickly and quietly. Completely out of character for him. Has he finally hoisted the surrender flag to the swamp here in the middle of election season?

Paul,
Trump tried to calm fears and prevent panic.... the tide of hysteria overtook him and now he is playing by their rules I believe

I wish Obama were still in..................he could give all that stern look of confidence.........you know they one where he bites his teeth to show us his firm jawline. I think That look from Obama would have banished Corona from our shores. Oh I almost forgot, the wrinkled brow and chin on had.......you know that look of deep contemplation..............oh hell yea..........that would do it.

Disco

I am proud to admitt I was listening to Van Halen not the Bee Gees

When Disco overtook the airwaves[many a rock station converted here] is when I switched to country.

Raeford, I don't know about you but I am just damned glad I am no longer considered a boomer.....

Hell yeah!

I never thought I'd see Trump as an effete twat, but if he gave in that quickly and that quietly, that is just what he is.

Paul I hope you are right and I am wrong

I don't know sign language but I'm not happy about what that governor just outlawed

https://i.imgur.com/hnCF3MV.mp4

I tend to cut the government slack in emergencies. Particularly in one where the stakes are so high and there are so many unknowns. I believe Trump issued the emergency order that paved the way for the restrictions because in his heart he felt like it was the right thing to do for the citizens he serves. I do not think he would have given in to pressure, at least not silently. That's not who our president is.

lolol,...

lololololol

I don't think the Italians can vote in our elections.

Todays death toll in Italy was 475. Now instead of ~ 125,000 if they can hold their own, it's about 175,000. For what it's worth, that.s a 40% increase in 24 hours. Tell me again how this is all a ploy to get rid of Trump. I don't care what standards you measure than against, if that gets here in the uncontrolled status it is there nearly one million people dead is a pretty sizable number

The Italians say the death toll is 12.

If I take the 7% at face value, that means 93% that get it survive


Pretty good odds in my book


If I get it & die it will save SS a few bucks, and I’ve lived a damn good life anyway

But 93% survival rate ? I can like those odds 👍🏻

Oh chit they outlawed corn on the cob ? 😱😂😂

Does the average age of the ship passengers and extent of prexisting health
conditions match those of the whole USA?

floating retirement villages are not a good basis to calculate from.

How do you like these odds?

Coronavirus doctor says lung scans for young patients were ‘nothing short of terrifying’
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/coron...tients-were-nothing-short-of-terrifying/

People who fully recover from the coronavirus can be left with '20 to 30%' less lung function, and gasping for breath when they walk quickly, Hong Kong doctors find
https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-fully-recover-coronavirus-left-103917303.html

Hon Kong doctors??? Seriously??? Goosesh!t you truly are one dumb SOB. Keep drinking the Koolaid stupid.

Calm down goosey. Lung function can take years to recover after trauma. Stay safe and take care of you and yours. We will get through this as a nation and as a group regardless of political nonsense

This is one of the very few events where testing was undertaken on a every member of a population group. if we could rest a valid random population group, we might have better data. However, we have insufficient tests and tools available to do just that. Only the most suspected infected people are being tested and we zero idea as to the total number of infected people. This is basic college 201 statistics.

I will.. and I will.

Great year!... if you are a Vette.

Apparently ZAD really wasn't a fan though. At least he got his way in '64.

Ohhhh, So skeery that was.

Italy’s death toll from the coronavirus overtakes China’s

The number of people who have died from the coronavirus in Italy has hit 3,405, according to Reuters, meaning the country has now reported more deaths than China as a result of the pandemic.

The death toll in China, where the coronavirus started in Wuhan, in Hubei province late 2019, currently stands at 3,249, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Health officials in Italy said Thursday that the death toll had risen by 427 in the last 24 hours, with 475 deaths recorded the day before.

After sweeping through China in early 2020, the virus spread to Europe where Italy — and particularly the northern Lombardy region, which is home to financial hub Milan — became the epicenter.

The country, like many others in Europe, remains under lockdown as authorities attempt to stem the human cost of the virus. And closures will have to be extended beyond the current end-date of April 3, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte confirmed earlier in the day.

Speaking to Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Conte said measures taken to close schools and universities and to restrict movement throughout Italy would have to be prolonged.

“The total blockade will go on,” Conte said. “The measures taken, both the closure of (public) activities and the ones concerning schools, can only be extended,” he told the paper.

Under the lockdown rules, people can only leave their homes to get food or medicines (grocery stores and pharmacies are the only stores that remain open), or to perform other essential services or to go to work. Most shops had been forced to close until March 25 but that deadline also looks set to be extended.

Deaths in Italy from the virus: 3,249.
Population of Italy (2019): ~60,550,000

3,249/60,550,000 = 0.0000536 % of total population.

You've got this all wrong!
The mortality rate is 10% minimum!

I'm more handsome than smart, but still the math doesn't seem all that hard!

Here's a math problem for you then.

A: Italy currently has 41, 035 cases of C-19. That number is doubling every four days. How long before it reaches 60,550,000?

B: Of the concluded cases in Italy 4,440 have recovered vs 3,405 dead. What is a patient's chance of survival?

C: Currently Italy has 2,498 cases of C- 19 listed as severe. Use your answer to B to calculate the number of soon to be dead.

D: Of the active cases (30,692), 2,498 of those are considered severe. What percentage of active cases are considered severe?

E: Using the answer to D, how many serious cases will there be when the active case load hits 25,000,000?

F: Using your answer to B times your answer to E, what can we expect as total fatality numbers in Italy?

G: Using your answer to A, on what date can we expect F to happen?

Idaho, no fair using real, instead of alternative, facts. And math! Don't do that. It will hurt people here.

you numbers guys are so tedious...LOL

I still contend that there is no known true number of actual CO-19 cases.
I understand the double/quadruple ratio, but no one knows how many have already basically 'been there, done that'[had it] and are now basically fine.
Another unknown is when it actually started and how many flew in and out of Wuhan prior to late Dec, 19

It really hurts to be on the same side of the fence with our resident liberals on this one issue.

But facts is facts, and math don't lie.

Sincerely wish it weren't so.

But if just a couple come to understand that Trump has done the things he has done this week because ALL evidence indicated it was the right thing to do, I have accomplished my mission.

Agreed. There's reasonable cause for concern and appropriate measures, but I won't be pitching in to dig any pre-emptive mass graves just yet

Hope Chef Boyardee is ok.

As of today (March 19), Johns Hopkins is reporting that Italy, with a population of 60,480,000 has 41,035 confirmed cases, with 3,405 deaths. These are numbers to date and will certainly rise. While this percentage of deaths/confirmed cases is slightly over 8%, it is very significant if you are in the 8%.

And, keep in mind that the number of confirmed cases continues to rise and deaths trail the number of cases (i.e., people get sick, then die afterward!).

A: No one will never know how many cases of C-19 are, or were, in Italy. So it's impossible to know if the number is doubling or not.

B. Chance of survival is excellent. Always has been. In fact, Italy is gettin tired of bein used for hysterical propaganda purposes.

So, they told the truth about corona in Italy: Only 12 people have died from the corona virus alone. The rest had pre-existing serious health conditions, which is why they were in a nursing home. The great majority of them had several pre-existing serious health conditions. And they determined that having the virus only slightly increased a person's chance of dying. Just like the scientists in the US have discovered.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...have-other-serious-health-complications/

C: Very few will die, unless that have pre-existing health issues.

D: No one knows, or will ever know, how many active cases there are.

E: A tiny percentage, limited to those with pre-existing serious health issues.

F: Garbage in, garbage out. If you don;t use the correct figures, the answer will be incorrect.

G: The cold virus will run its course without having a dramatic effect.

I agree that math doesn't lie. However sometimes the numbers plugged into equations are wrong and thus, the problem itself is wrong. For instance we see a lot of death rates that assume x number of infected people. The real numbers of infected people are not known, so one of the input numbers is wrong, so the death rate is wrong, even though the math is right.

Using math, which doesn't lie, please explain why China hasn't seen millions of people, out of their 5 billion or so, die. Using math, please explain why China's infection rate has dropped so much. China didn't start quarantines until after the cat was out of the bag.

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

The other 1% is probably smokers.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15770/smoking-coronavirus

Because China enforced quarantine at the muzzle of an AK 47, and deaths due to a 123 gr softpoint to the forehead do not count as viral death.

China didn't start the quarantine until after the virus was pretty well established. My original question stands. Do you have any links or other real information on the number of people shot by the Chinese to enforce the quarantine, or do you simply not have an answer to either of my questions?

As of 19th March [Global]

238,000 confirmed , 9800 deaths = 4%

Mortality rate by age:

10-19 = 0.2%
20-29 = 0.2%
30-39 = 0.2%
40-49 = 0.4%
50-59 = 1.3%
60-69 = 3.6%
70-79 = 8%
80+ = 14.8%


I suspect those on the CF constantly beating up the fear narrative fall in the 60 and over
pre-existing health condition category.

Again, you're missing the point. With an unknown number of people infected globally there is no way you can fix a meaningful percentage re death rate.
And of those who died, how many were over 80? How many with pre-existing conditions?
Lastly, in my case you are wrong on both suppositions in your last sentence.

Goin global, there's gotta be at least 2.3 million that got the cold.

Outta almost 8 billion.

So you can divide Starman's mortality numbers by 10.

At least.

I didnt say anything about it being meaningful, but its sure to help sustain the fear and paranoia some have.

some get weird satisfaction out of things that seem to support their fears...the "I told you so" types...

the mental/emotional reactions to C19 are a barrel of laughs...

Granted we don’t really know the denominator, the numerator is growing and doesn’t look like happy times.

I'm laughing at the people who don't consider 8 percent a significant number,

Give that same person an 8 percent pay raise, he'll run out and buy himself a new 4x4 King Cab.

younger folk largely DGAF about the rate of death with elderly C19 victims
just like elderly folk largely DGAF about the rate of youth suicide.

I'm laughing at the people who consider 8 percent a valid number.

Be interesting to see how many would even dare to drive to the grocery store if it entailed just a 1% mortality rate.

Clearly, people here have no quantitative common sense.

Tyrone bro, how many folks over 50 dont have some kind of health condition?

Italy just passed China in the number of deaths from this thing. I suspect their failing infrastructure on all levels is to blame when they overtake the most populist country in the world where the virus originated.

A percentage based on a floating and unknown denominator is meaningless.

Not even a valid guess if you’re somewhere out of the ballpark.

DF

Here’s the thing with equations and models. Crap in equals crap out.

Hummm. Unusual perspecuity for one who supports open borders and muzzy immigration. Hope springs eternal.

God bless.

Me too plus Aunt Jemamamia

I'm doubting this.

8% is a huge number. Billions have been made in pharmaceuticals by improving mortality by only 1%.

I don't think 'Merica is Italy. We're getting in front of this thing. However, some aren't listening. China, you have no choice, you lock down. And they seem to be winning.

I have my doubts too. I don't trust China for schidt.

If 1% is the norm, society comes to terms with it and gets on with life,

just like women in past centuries still willingly got pregant despite all the potential risks
to mother and infant through childbirth..today with our medical advances we view the deathrate
as shocking, but to them it was just the normal risk you took.

and if you didnt die at birth, you then risked the numerous communicable diseases prevalent
. ..including smallpox, diphtheria, measles, meningitis, scarlet fever, whooping cough.,Cholera etc

With all those potential threats looming why in hell bring a child into the world?

yet society accepted such and just took the necessary risks and hardship on the chin.

Keep laughing idiot. Yesterdays death numbers from Italy were 475. It does not make an iota of difference how many are infected that didn't die, it doesn't make an iota of difference how big the total population is. 475 is a fact and it is also a fact the if things just stay steady and do not get worse that amounts to around 175,000 dead in Italy. Not a single piece of your BULLSHIT will change those facts and if 175,000 dead bodies isn't enough to get your attention there is nothing can get past your delusions.

Personally, I do not for a minute believe the numbers out of China. But... If Trump does not have people getting a real number or as close to possible as we can get, then he is dumber than you are. If their real numbers are less than 10x what they are saying then either they have something else going for them or we need to be clamping down one whole helluva lot tighter or we are in really deep sh*t.

+1

DF

Have they posted the number of dead today?

627 today's death toll in Italy. It climbs everyday.

Italian Army called in to move corpses out of town...

Link


Phil

Sucks to be in that socialist worker paradise eh?

BTW, what did you say you are going to do for treatment when you get the Covid?

Nothin more fun than watchin a liberal melt down.

Been a bad day for your buddy covid.

WHO lied about the lethality of covid, overestimated by nearly 300%.

99% of cases in Italy had preexisting conditions, and weren't killed by covid alone.

Only 12 actually killed by covid.

Nothin like warped statistics to get alla the liberals interested in Italy.

Not goin good in Italy, so let's switch back to the US:

100% cure rate, in New York.

18,409 cases, by your bullshit number, 64 serious or critical.

Not dead, just serious or critical.

One-third of one percent.

Your bullshit mortality percentages tanking, as legitimate information is received.

Down ta 1%, and falling faster than the stock market.

Turns out covid was comin outta China at least in November, ruining the "curve" hysteria.

Japan ain't even testing for it, cause they got common sense, along with a treatment.

South Korea's about done.

So, it appears, as anyone with any common sense knew from the start, that the pandemic, was just dem panic.

But keep postin usin all caps, that will be much more effecitve.

Now we wouldn't.

In a year we'd all be dead.